In October 2023 Demos, in collaboration with the Health Foundation, published a paper Revenue, Capital, Prevention: A New Public Spending Framework for the Future.1 The paper called for the creation of a new classification of public expenditure, Preventative Departmental Expenditure Limits (PDEL). PDEL would sit alongside the existing classifications of expenditure, Capital Departmental Expenditure Limits (CDEL) and Revenue Departmental Expenditure Limits (RDEL). The aim would be to identify expenditure on prevention and ‘ring-fence’ that spending to encourage the ‘shift to prevention’ which many have called for within public spending. The paper sought to create a new institutional architecture for the implementation of PDEL including:
1. The creation of a Preventative Expenditure Working Group (PEWG) to look at developing a definition of preventative expenditure in line with associated accounting standards and the development of guidance.
2. The creation of a Preventative Investment Unit (PIU) within HM Treasury to apply the classification across department budgets and support the implementation of PDEL into budgets and spending reviews.
3. The passage of a Public Investment Act to create a target for preventative expenditure and to monitor its achievement.
4. Develop a Preventative Investment Challenge (PIC) to fund the development of preventative programmes across government departments, What Works Centres, civil society organisations, social enterprises and other entities building on the success of innovations such as Shared Outcome Funds.
There has been widespread support for this shift in public services towards prevention enabled by a new accounting mechanism, but concerns about both the feasibility of measuring preventative spending accurately and appropriately but also that ring-fencing alone may not lead to the desired improvements in outcomes and value for money. This paper explores the challenge of measurement. A second paper, looking at how to shift the culture of public bodies to think ‘prevention first’ and target spending at activities which are value for money and improve outcomes, is published alongside this.